Why we don't show a single “fair value” for SBGSY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($33.29) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$67.96 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +30.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.1%/yr | 10.8% | $17.45 |
| Base case | 7.1%/yr | 9.8% | $24.00 |
| Optimistic | 10.1%/yr | 8.8% | $33.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $28.95 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$67.96
Market-Implied Growth
+30.7%/yr
vs +5.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$24.00
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SBGSY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.9B · 2.82B shares · net debt $15.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$24.00
-64.7% vs $67.96
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $67.96; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.8% | $29.97 | $32.47 | $35.44 | $39.03 | $43.45 |
| 8.8% | $24.97 | $26.75 | $28.81 | $31.22 | $34.09 |
| 9.8% | $21.18 | $22.50 | $24.00 | $25.71 | $27.70 |
| 10.8% | $18.21 | $19.22 | $20.35 | $21.62 | $23.07 |
| 11.8% | $15.82 | $16.61 | $17.49 | $18.47 | $19.56 |
