SAP SE (SAP) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values SAP SE (SAP) between $77.12 and $146.32 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $104.11. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$149.51 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +13.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.1%/yr | 8.8% | $77.12 |
| Base case | 5.1%/yr | 7.8% | $104.11 |
| Optimistic | 8.1%/yr | 6.8% | $146.32 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $144.96 | |
Current Price
$149.51
Market-Implied Growth
+13.8%/yr
vs +3.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$77.12 – $146.32
model output — not a price target
SAP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SAP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.6B · 1.17B shares · net cash $174.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$114.47
-23.4% vs $149.51
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $149.51; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.8% | $153 | $168 | $187 | $212 | $249 |
| 6.8% | $123 | $132 | $142 | $156 | $173 |
| 7.8% | $102 | $108 | $114 | $122 | $132 |
| 8.8% | $87.58 | $91.31 | $95.64 | $101 | $107 |
| 9.8% | $76.37 | $79.01 | $82.01 | $85.45 | $89.43 |
About SAP SE
SAP SE, founded in Walldorf, Germany, in 1972, is a global provider of diverse software applications, technology, and services. The company's core enterprise resource planning (ERP) platform, SAP S/4HANA, offers robust functionalities for finance, risk management, project execution, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain optimization, asset management, and research and development. For human resources, SAP delivers SuccessFactors solutions, which encompass HR and payroll, talent and employee experience management, and comprehensive people and workforce analytics. Additionally, SAP provides spend management tools designed to handle direct and indirect expenditures, travel and expense reporting, and external workforce administration. SAP further extends its portfolio with customer experience solutions and the SAP Business Technology Platform, empowering both clients and partners to develop, integrate, and automate applications. Its SAP Business Network serves as a crucial business-to-business collaboration platform, digitizing key supply chain processes and facilitating seamless communication among trading partners. The company also offers SAP Signavio for discovering, analyzing, and enhancing business process operations, alongside modular industry-specific cloud solutions. Through Taulia, SAP provides working capital management solutions, helping customers improve liquidity visibility and mitigate the effects of inflation. Completing its extensive offerings, SAP also provides a range of sustainability solutions and services.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- CEO
- Christian Klein