TGM's two-stage DCF values SAP SE (SAP) between $77.73 and $145.33 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $104.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$209.22 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +23.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.0%/yr | 9.0% | $77.73 |
| Base case | 6.0%/yr | 8.0% | $104.31 |
| Optimistic | 9.0%/yr | 7.0% | $145.33 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $130.46 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$209.22
Market-Implied Growth
+23.2%/yr
vs +5.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$77.73 – $145.33
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for SAP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.6B · 1.17B shares · net cash $174.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$104.31
-50.1% vs $209.22
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $209.22; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.0% | $132 | $147 | $165 | $189 | $223 |
| 7.0% | $108 | $117 | $128 | $142 | $159 |
| 8.0% | $90.94 | $97.07 | $104 | $113 | $124 |
| 9.0% | $78.53 | $82.93 | $88.00 | $93.91 | $101 |
| 10.0% | $69.05 | $72.34 | $76.06 | $80.31 | $85.20 |
