TGM's two-stage DCF values Packaging Corporation of America (PKG) between $78.71 and $180.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $118.73. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$239.01 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +18.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.8%/yr | 9.1% | $78.71 |
| Base case | 4.8%/yr | 8.1% | $118.73 |
| Optimistic | 7.8%/yr | 7.1% | $180.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $170.33 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$239.01
Market-Implied Growth
+18.6%/yr
vs +3.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$78.71 – $180.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PKG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $699.7M · 0.09B shares · net debt $3.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$118.73
-50.3% vs $239.01
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $239.01; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.1% | $160 | $181 | $208 | $243 | $292 |
| 7.1% | $124 | $137 | $154 | $174 | $199 |
| 8.1% | $98.89 | $108 | $119 | $132 | $147 |
| 9.1% | $80.30 | $86.88 | $94.44 | $103 | $114 |
| 10.1% | $66.05 | $70.98 | $76.56 | $82.90 | $90.20 |
