TGM's two-stage DCF values Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) between $603.47 and $1,273.95 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $861.50. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$397.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -3.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.9%/yr | 8.5% | $603.47 |
| Base case | 11.9%/yr | 7.5% | $861.50 |
| Optimistic | 14.9%/yr | 6.5% | $1,273.95 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $448.67 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$397.77
Market-Implied Growth
-3.5%/yr
vs +11.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$603.47 – $1,273.95
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MPC (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $9.2B · 0.29B shares · net debt $28.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$861.50
+116.6% vs $397.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $397.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $1156 | $1316 | $1529 | $1827 | $2274 |
| 6.5% | $896 | $992 | $1112 | $1265 | $1470 |
| 7.5% | $723 | $786 | $861 | $954 | $1069 |
| 8.5% | $599 | $644 | $695 | $756 | $829 |
| 9.5% | $507 | $540 | $576 | $619 | $669 |
