Marathon Petroleum Corporation logo
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)
Compare

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) DCF Valuation

Price is BELOW the estimated range
$422.73
$507.33
Estimated fair value
$264.65
Today's price

Two independent models estimate Marathon Petroleum Corporation's fair value between $422.73 (conservative case) and $507.33 (analyst consensus).

What would today's price require?

Growth the price assumes+0.0%/yr
Actual growth, last 5 years+30.6%/yr

$264.65 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +0.0% a year for the next decade — slower than the company has actually grown.

Current Price

$264.65

Fair-Value Range

$422.73 – $507.33

Market-Implied Growth

+0.0%/yr

vs +30.6% 5Y actual

MPC DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.

5%/yr
Historical FCF CAGR: 3Y -28.4% · 5Y 30.6% · 10Y 21.0%
10%
2.5%
10yr

Base inputs: FCF $9.3B · 0.29B shares · net debt $29.1B

Estimated Fair Value

$422.73

+59.7% vs $264.65

Current price$264.65
Analyst DCF (FMP)$507.33

Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth

How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $264.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.

WACC ↓ / Terminal →1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%
8.0%$550$583$622$670$727
9.0%$458$481$507$538$574
10.0%$388$404$423$444$468
11.0%$333$345$358$373$390
12.0%$289$298$308$319$331

About Marathon Petroleum Corporation

Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. This division also acquires refined petroleum products and ethanol for subsequent distribution. Key outputs from this segment encompass a diverse array of transportation fuels, including different gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt. Additionally, it manufactures chemicals such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. MPC sells these refined goods through multiple channels, including wholesale marketers domestically and globally, purchasers on the open spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who manage primarily Marathon-branded retail locations. It also supplies fuel via long-term agreements to direct dealer sites, predominantly under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment handles the comprehensive movement, storage, distribution, and commercialization of crude oil and refined products. This is achieved through its extensive network of refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. Moreover, this segment engages in the collection, processing, and transportation of natural gas, alongside the gathering, transport, fractionation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids. By December 31, 2021, the corporation supported 7,159 branded jobber retail points, managed by independent entrepreneurs, spanning 37 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico. Marathon Petroleum Corporation, established in 1887, maintains its corporate headquarters in Findlay, Ohio.

Findlay, OH
18,300 employees
Energy / Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
Sector
Energy
Industry
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
CEO
Maryann T. Mannen