Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC)'s fair value in a range of $420.71 – $505.04 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $258.15 sits below that range — by these conservative assumptions it screens as potentially undervalued.
Reverse DCF: at today's $258.15, the market is pricing in roughly -0.2%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +30.6%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$258.15
Fair-Value Range
$420.71 – $505.04
Market-Implied Growth
-0.2%/yr
vs +30.6% 5Y actual
MPC DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $9.3B · 0.29B shares · net debt $29.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$420.71
+63.0% vs $258.15
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $258.15; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $547 | $580 | $619 | $666 | $724 |
| 9.0% | $456 | $478 | $505 | $535 | $571 |
| 10.0% | $386 | $402 | $421 | $442 | $466 |
| 11.0% | $332 | $344 | $357 | $372 | $388 |
| 12.0% | $288 | $297 | $306 | $317 | $329 |
About Marathon Petroleum Corporation
Marathon Petroleum Corporation (MPC) functions as a prominent integrated energy enterprise, primarily concentrating its downstream operations across the United States. Its business is bifurcated into two main divisions: Refining & Marketing, and Midstream. The Refining & Marketing segment is responsible for processing crude oil and various other raw materials at its refineries, strategically located in the U.S. Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions. This division also acquires refined petroleum products and ethanol for subsequent distribution. Key outputs from this segment encompass a diverse array of transportation fuels, including different gasoline blends, heavy fuel oil, and asphalt. Additionally, it manufactures chemicals such as aromatics, propane, propylene, and sulfur. MPC sells these refined goods through multiple channels, including wholesale marketers domestically and globally, purchasers on the open spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who manage primarily Marathon-branded retail locations. It also supplies fuel via long-term agreements to direct dealer sites, predominantly under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment handles the comprehensive movement, storage, distribution, and commercialization of crude oil and refined products. This is achieved through its extensive network of refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges. Moreover, this segment engages in the collection, processing, and transportation of natural gas, alongside the gathering, transport, fractionation, storage, and marketing of natural gas liquids. By December 31, 2021, the corporation supported 7,159 branded jobber retail points, managed by independent entrepreneurs, spanning 37 U.S. states, the District of Columbia, and Mexico. Marathon Petroleum Corporation, established in 1887, maintains its corporate headquarters in Findlay, Ohio.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing
- CEO
- Maryann T. Mannen