TGM's two-stage DCF values Macy's, Inc. (M) between $15.55 and $25.73 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $19.20. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.2%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$22.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +5.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.2% | $15.55 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.2% | $19.20 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.2% | $25.73 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $26.24 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$22.43
Market-Implied Growth
+5.2%/yr
vs -15.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$15.55 – $25.73
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for M (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $540.0M · 0.26B shares · net debt $1.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$19.20
-14.4% vs $22.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $22.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $23.11 | $24.57 | $26.25 | $28.19 | $30.48 |
| 10.2% | $19.93 | $21.03 | $22.27 | $23.68 | $25.30 |
| 11.2% | $17.40 | $18.25 | $19.20 | $20.26 | $21.46 |
| 12.2% | $15.34 | $16.02 | $16.76 | $17.59 | $18.50 |
| 13.2% | $13.64 | $14.19 | $14.78 | $15.44 | $16.16 |
