Dayforce Inc (DAY) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for DAY
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($10.57) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.6%/yr | 10.9% | $4.81 |
| Base case | 17.6%/yr | 9.9% | $7.34 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.9% | $10.57 |
Current Price
$69.86
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$7.34
model output — not a price target
DAY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for DAY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $71.6M · 0.16B shares · net debt $636.7M
Estimated Fair Value
$14.84
-78.8% vs $69.86
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $69.86; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.9% | $20.21 | $21.72 | $23.51 | $25.67 | $28.32 |
| 8.9% | $16.25 | $17.28 | $18.47 | $19.86 | $21.51 |
| 9.9% | $13.28 | $14.01 | $14.84 | $15.78 | $16.88 |
| 10.9% | $10.97 | $11.51 | $12.10 | $12.77 | $13.54 |
| 11.9% | $9.14 | $9.54 | $9.98 | $10.47 | $11.02 |
About Dayforce Inc
Dayforce Inc. operates as a leading software provider focused on human capital management (HCM) solutions, serving businesses throughout the United States, Canada, and other international markets. The company's primary offering is its cloud-based Dayforce platform, which seamlessly integrates various functions such as human resources, payroll processing, benefits administration, workforce scheduling and management, and talent development. For the small business segment, Dayforce Inc. provides Powerpay, a distinct cloud HR and payroll system. Additionally, it offers Bureau solutions for comprehensive payroll and related administrative services. The company distributes its solutions via a dedicated direct sales team and through collaborations with third-party channels. Established in 2013 and based in Minneapolis, Minnesota, the organization rebranded from Ceridian HCM Holding Inc. to Dayforce Inc. in February 2024.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Application
- CEO
- Stephen H. Holdridge