Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) between $29.09 and $64.08 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $41.48. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.1%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$120.56 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.1% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.1% | $29.09 |
| Base case | 2.1%/yr | 9.1% | $41.48 |
| Optimistic | 5.1%/yr | 8.1% | $64.08 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $62.01 | |
Current Price
$120.56
Market-Implied Growth
+21.5%/yr
vs +0.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$29.09 – $64.08
model output — not a price target
CNI DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CNI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.7B · 0.61B shares · net debt $15.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$40.69
-66.3% vs $120.56
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $120.56; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.1% | $57.89 | $62.99 | $69.19 | $76.90 | $86.76 |
| 8.1% | $45.15 | $48.48 | $52.40 | $57.08 | $62.79 |
| 9.1% | $35.77 | $38.06 | $40.69 | $43.75 | $47.35 |
| 10.1% | $28.58 | $30.21 | $32.06 | $34.16 | $36.58 |
| 11.1% | $22.89 | $24.09 | $25.43 | $26.93 | $28.63 |
About Canadian National Railway Company
Canadian National Railway Company (CNI), together with its subsidiary operations, functions as a key player in the railway and related logistics industry. The firm handles a wide array of freight, including petroleum products and chemicals, agricultural commodities such as grain and fertilizers, various minerals like coal and metals, timber and paper goods, intermodal containers, and finished automobiles. Its services cater to a broad base of clients, from international exporters and importers to retail chains, agricultural growers, and industrial manufacturers. CNI boasts a substantial rail infrastructure, with approximately 19,500 miles of track extending across both Canada and the United States. Additionally, the company provides diverse ancillary services, encompassing marine terminal management (vessels and docks), cargo transshipment and distribution, specialized automotive supply chain solutions, and comprehensive freight management and forwarding. Founded in 1919, Canadian National Railway Company is based in Montreal, Canada.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Railroads
- CEO
- Tracy A. Robinson