Cameco Corporation (CCJ) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for CCJ
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($34.70) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$107.02 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +52.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.0%/yr | 10.0% | $19.73 |
| Base case | 14.0%/yr | 9.0% | $25.80 |
| Optimistic | 17.0%/yr | 8.0% | $34.70 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $36.77 | |
Current Price
$107.02
Market-Implied Growth
+52.6%/yr
vs +14.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$25.80
model output — not a price target
CCJ DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for CCJ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $442.7M · 0.44B shares · net cash $75.4M
Estimated Fair Value
$38.39
-64.1% vs $107.02
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $107.02; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $50.16 | $53.89 | $58.44 | $64.13 | $71.45 |
| 8.0% | $41.27 | $43.69 | $46.55 | $49.97 | $54.16 |
| 9.0% | $34.83 | $36.48 | $38.39 | $40.61 | $43.24 |
| 10.0% | $29.95 | $31.13 | $32.46 | $33.98 | $35.74 |
| 11.0% | $26.15 | $27.02 | $27.98 | $29.06 | $30.29 |
About Cameco Corporation
Cameco Corporation is a prominent global enterprise specializing in the production and distribution of uranium. Its operations are structured into two core divisions: Uranium and Fuel Services. The Uranium division manages the full upstream process, encompassing the exploration, extraction, and initial processing (milling) of uranium ore, as well as the procurement and sale of uranium concentrate. Conversely, the Fuel Services division focuses on the downstream transformation of uranium. This includes the refining, conversion, and fabrication of uranium concentrate into usable forms, alongside providing related conversion services. Furthermore, this segment is responsible for manufacturing specialized fuel bundles and reactor components specifically designed for CANDU reactors. Cameco provides its essential uranium products and associated fuel services to nuclear utility clients across major international markets, including the Americas, Europe, and Asia. The company was founded in 1987 and maintains its principal office in Saskatoon, Canada.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Uranium
- CEO
- Timothy S. Gitzel