Axon Enterprise, Inc. (AXON) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for AXON
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Axon Enterprise, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.1% | $24.57 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.1% | $33.38 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.1% | $43.37 |
Current Price
$446.20
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$33.38
model output — not a price target
AXON DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for AXON (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $154.1M · 0.08B shares · net debt $708.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$60.76
-86.4% vs $446.20
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $446.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.1% | $78.48 | $82.78 | $87.73 | $93.49 | $100 |
| 10.1% | $65.85 | $68.91 | $72.38 | $76.34 | $80.90 |
| 11.1% | $55.99 | $58.25 | $60.76 | $63.59 | $66.79 |
| 12.1% | $48.12 | $49.82 | $51.69 | $53.77 | $56.09 |
| 13.1% | $41.71 | $43.01 | $44.44 | $46.01 | $47.74 |
About Axon Enterprise, Inc.
Axon Enterprise, Inc., founded in 1993 and headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona, was previously known as TASER International, Inc. until its rebranding in April 2017. The company specializes in the development, production, and sale of conducted energy devices (CEDs) marketed under its well-known TASER brand, catering to both domestic and international clients. Axon's operations are divided into two primary segments: TASER, and Software and Sensors. In addition to its signature TASER devices, such as the TASER 7, X26P, X2, and consumer models, along with their corresponding cartridges, Axon offers an extensive portfolio of hardware and cloud-based software. These solutions are designed to equip law enforcement agencies with the means to capture, securely archive, manage, share, and analyze video and other digital evidence. Key products in this category include on-officer body cameras, Axon Fleet in-car systems, the Axon Evidence digital evidence management platform, Axon Signal-enabled devices, extended hardware warranties, and vital accessories like docks, cartridges, and batteries. Axon distributes its offerings through multiple channels, including its dedicated direct sales force, various distribution partners, its online storefront, and authorized third-party resellers. Furthermore, the company has established a strategic partnership with Fusus, Inc. to enhance the functionality of Axon Respond and the Fusus Real Time Crime Center in the Cloud solution, providing agencies with real-time operational awareness and more efficient investigative processes.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Aerospace & Defense
- CEO
- Patrick W. Smith