APA Corporation (APA) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for APA
Even the conservative scenario ($68.26) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$33.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -8.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.7%/yr | 8.5% | $68.26 |
| Base case | 11.7%/yr | 7.5% | $97.57 |
| Optimistic | 14.7%/yr | 6.5% | $144.43 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $103.24 | |
Current Price
$33.33
Market-Implied Growth
-8.8%/yr
vs +22.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$97.57
model output — not a price target
APA DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for APA (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.35B shares · net debt $4.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$141.89
+325.8% vs $33.33
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $33.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $201 | $225 | $257 | $302 | $369 |
| 6.5% | $154 | $168 | $185 | $207 | $236 |
| 7.5% | $123 | $132 | $142 | $155 | $170 |
| 8.5% | $101 | $107 | $113 | $121 | $131 |
| 9.5% | $84.73 | $88.74 | $93.34 | $98.63 | $105 |
About APA Corporation
APA Corporation operates in the upstream segment of the oil and natural gas industry, utilizing its various subsidiaries to explore for, develop, and produce hydrocarbon assets. The company maintains significant operational presences in the United States, Egypt, and the United Kingdom, while also conducting exploration activities offshore Suriname. Furthermore, APA Corporation manages critical gathering, processing, and transmission infrastructure within West Texas and holds ownership interests in four major pipelines connecting the Permian Basin to the Gulf Coast. Established in 1954, the company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- CEO
- John J. Christmann