Allegion plc (ALLE) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Allegion plc (ALLE) between $78.36 and $158.45 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $110.39. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$137.00 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.3%/yr | 9.5% | $78.36 |
| Base case | 7.3%/yr | 8.5% | $110.39 |
| Optimistic | 10.3%/yr | 7.5% | $158.45 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $238.28 | |
Current Price
$137.00
Market-Implied Growth
+11.8%/yr
vs +5.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$78.36 – $158.45
model output — not a price target
ALLE DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ALLE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $549.6M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$134.39
-1.9% vs $137.00
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $137.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $182 | $198 | $218 | $244 | $278 |
| 7.5% | $146 | $156 | $168 | $182 | $201 |
| 8.5% | $120 | $127 | $134 | $144 | $155 |
| 9.5% | $101 | $105 | $111 | $117 | $124 |
| 10.5% | $85.78 | $89.15 | $92.95 | $97.26 | $102 |
About Allegion plc
Allegion plc engages in the provision of security products and solutions worldwide. It is operating through two segments: Allegion Americas and Allegion International. The company offers door controls, door control system, and exit devices; doors, glass and door systems, and accessories; electronic security products and access control systems, including time, attendance, and workforce productivity; and locks, locksets, portable locks, and key systems. It also provides services and software, such as inspection, maintenance, and repair services for its automatic entrance solutions; software as a service, including access control, platform integration, and workforce management solutions; and ongoing aftermarket services, and design and installation offerings. In addition, the company sells its products and solutions to end-users in commercial, institutional, and residential facilities, including education, healthcare, government, hospitality, retail, commercial office, and single and multi-family residential markets under the CISA, Interflex, LCN, Schlage, SimonsVoss, and Von Duprin brands. It sells its products and solutions through distribution and retail channels, such as specialty distribution, e-commerce, and wholesalers, as well as through various retail channels comprising do-it-yourself home improvement centers, online and e-commerce platforms, and small specialty showroom outlets. Allegion plc was incorporated in 2013 and is based in Dublin, Ireland.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Security & Protection Services
- CEO
- John H. Stone