TGM's two-stage DCF values Allegion plc (ALLE) between $76.74 and $158.12 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $109.08. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$152.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +12.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.6%/yr | 9.3% | $76.74 |
| Base case | 5.6%/yr | 8.3% | $109.08 |
| Optimistic | 8.6%/yr | 7.3% | $158.12 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $209.78 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$152.48
Market-Implied Growth
+12.6%/yr
vs +3.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$76.74 – $158.12
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ALLE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $549.6M · 0.09B shares · net debt $1.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$109.08
-28.5% vs $152.48
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $152.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $142 | $158 | $179 | $205 | $241 |
| 7.3% | $114 | $124 | $137 | $152 | $172 |
| 8.3% | $93.29 | $101 | $109 | $119 | $131 |
| 9.3% | $78.28 | $83.57 | $89.63 | $96.64 | $105 |
| 10.3% | $66.69 | $70.68 | $75.18 | $80.28 | $86.13 |
