Why we don't show a single “fair value” for XYZ
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($29.48) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$80.32 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +46.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.5%/yr | 12.5% | $20.17 |
| Base case | 9.5%/yr | 11.5% | $24.13 |
| Optimistic | 12.5%/yr | 10.5% | $29.48 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $29.93 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$80.32
Market-Implied Growth
+46.6%/yr
vs +9.5% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$24.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for XYZ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $779.2M · 0.60B shares · net cash $2.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$24.13
-70.0% vs $80.32
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $80.32; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $27.43 | $28.64 | $30.01 | $31.60 | $33.46 |
| 10.5% | $24.75 | $25.67 | $26.70 | $27.87 | $29.20 |
| 11.5% | $22.62 | $23.33 | $24.13 | $25.01 | $26.00 |
| 12.5% | $20.88 | $21.45 | $22.07 | $22.76 | $23.53 |
| 13.5% | $19.43 | $19.89 | $20.39 | $20.94 | $21.55 |
