Walmart Inc.(WMT)
Discount Stores · Bentonville, AR
$107.14-1.28 (-1.18%)
Delayed quote: Sep 4, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Discount Stores · Bentonville, AR
Delayed quote: Sep 4, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for WMT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($53.15) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$107.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +30.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.4%/yr | 8.5% | $25.20 |
| Base case | 5.4%/yr | 7.5% | $35.96 |
| Optimistic | 8.4%/yr | 6.5% | $53.15 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 7, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $130.43 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$107.14
Market-Implied Growth
+30.6%/yr
vs -5.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$35.96
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WMT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $13.8B · 7.96B shares · net debt $34.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$35.96
-66.4% vs $107.14
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $107.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $47.97 | $54.49 | $63.17 | $75.32 | $93.54 |
| 6.5% | $37.36 | $41.27 | $46.16 | $52.44 | $60.80 |
| 7.5% | $30.29 | $32.87 | $35.96 | $39.73 | $44.44 |
| 8.5% | $25.25 | $27.06 | $29.16 | $31.65 | $34.62 |
| 9.5% | $21.48 | $22.80 | $24.31 | $26.05 | $28.08 |