Why we don't show a single “fair value” for WAT
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($159.36) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$402.91 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +42.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.7%/yr | 11.0% | $90.26 |
| Base case | 11.7%/yr | 10.0% | $118.95 |
| Optimistic | 14.7%/yr | 9.0% | $159.36 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $222.67 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$402.91
Market-Implied Growth
+42.7%/yr
vs +11.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$118.95
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for WAT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $491.0M · 0.07B shares · net debt $819.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$118.95
-70.5% vs $402.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $402.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $145 | $156 | $169 | $184 | $203 |
| 9.0% | $123 | $131 | $140 | $151 | $163 |
| 10.0% | $107 | $112 | $119 | $126 | $135 |
| 11.0% | $93.39 | $97.86 | $103 | $108 | $115 |
| 12.0% | $82.75 | $86.27 | $90.16 | $94.47 | $99.28 |
