Splunk Inc. (SPLK) DCF Valuation
A discounted-cash-flow model values Splunk Inc. (SPLK) at about $22.40 (TGM base case). Today's price of $156.90 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $156.90, the market is pricing in roughly +28.0%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +29.3%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$156.90
Fair-Value Range
$22.40
Market-Implied Growth
+28.0%/yr
vs +29.3% 5Y actual
SPLK DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $319.6M · 0.17B shares · net debt $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$22.40
-85.7% vs $156.90
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $156.90; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $29.95 | $31.93 | $34.27 | $37.08 | $40.51 |
| 9.0% | $24.50 | $25.85 | $27.42 | $29.24 | $31.39 |
| 10.0% | $20.35 | $21.31 | $22.40 | $23.65 | $25.09 |
| 11.0% | $17.08 | $17.79 | $18.58 | $19.47 | $20.47 |
| 12.0% | $14.45 | $14.98 | $15.57 | $16.22 | $16.95 |
About Splunk Inc.
Splunk Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides sophisticated software and cloud solutions that enable organizations to extract and operationalize valuable insights from the vast amounts of data produced by digital systems globally. At the core of its offerings is the Splunk Platform, a real-time data platform. This comprehensive platform integrates capabilities for data collection, streaming, indexing, searching, reporting, analysis, machine learning, alerting, continuous monitoring, and overall data management. The company also delivers specialized Splunk Solutions. Splunk Security solutions empower cybersecurity teams to streamline operations, accelerate threat detection and response, enhance threat visibility, and boost analyst productivity using machine learning and automation. For IT Operations teams, Splunk IT Solutions offer crucial visibility and control across both cloud and on-premises environments. Additionally, Splunk Observability Solutions are designed to assist in building and maintaining critical infrastructure and applications. Furthermore, Splunk supports an extensive Ecosystem Solutions portfolio, featuring pre-built data inputs, workflows, searches, reports, alerts, customizable dashboards, flexible UI components, and custom data visualizations. This ecosystem includes solutions like Splunk On-Call, Splunk Infrastructure Monitoring, and Splunk SOAR, all offering APIs and SDKs. These interfaces allow a broad network of third-party developers, partners, and customers to create custom content and extend Splunk's capabilities for specific applications. Beyond its software, Splunk provides various services, including adoption and implementation support, educational training, and ongoing maintenance and customer assistance. The company distributes its products directly through its field and inside sales teams, as well as indirectly through a diverse network of partners. Splunk Inc. was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- CEO
- Gary L. Steele