TGM's two-stage DCF values PACCAR Inc (PCAR) between $53.95 and $108.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $75.90. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$122.80 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +14.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.2%/yr | 10.0% | $53.95 |
| Base case | 4.2%/yr | 9.0% | $75.90 |
| Optimistic | 7.2%/yr | 8.0% | $108.03 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $44.56 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$122.80
Market-Implied Growth
+14.2%/yr
vs +4.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$53.95 – $108.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PCAR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.9B · 0.53B shares · net debt $9.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$75.90
-38.2% vs $122.80
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $122.80; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $96.87 | $106 | $118 | $132 | $151 |
| 8.0% | $79.00 | $85.46 | $93.09 | $102 | $113 |
| 9.0% | $65.90 | $70.55 | $75.90 | $82.13 | $89.49 |
| 10.0% | $55.90 | $59.37 | $63.29 | $67.78 | $72.94 |
| 11.0% | $48.00 | $50.68 | $53.66 | $57.01 | $60.80 |
