PACCAR Inc (PCAR) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put PACCAR Inc (PCAR)'s fair value in a range of $44.10 – $99.27 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $119.69 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $119.69, the market is pricing in roughly +8.0%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +16.0%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$119.69
Fair-Value Range
$44.10 – $99.27
Market-Implied Growth
+8.0%/yr
vs +16.0% 5Y actual
PCAR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.53B shares · net cash $9.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$99.27
-17.1% vs $119.69
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $119.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $119 | $124 | $130 | $138 | $147 |
| 9.0% | $105 | $108 | $112 | $117 | $123 |
| 10.0% | $93.87 | $96.40 | $99.27 | $103 | $106 |
| 11.0% | $85.29 | $87.15 | $89.22 | $91.55 | $94.20 |
| 12.0% | $78.38 | $79.78 | $81.32 | $83.03 | $84.94 |