Oracle Corporation (ORCL) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Oracle Corporation (ORCL)'s fair value in a range of $7.07 – $39.37 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $205.81 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $205.81, the market is pricing in roughly +31.0%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -13.2%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$205.81
Fair-Value Range
$7.07 – $39.37
Market-Implied Growth
+31.0%/yr
vs -13.2% 5Y actual
ORCL DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $6.2B · 2.88B shares · net debt $81.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$7.07
-96.6% vs $205.81
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $205.81; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $15.69 | $17.95 | $20.62 | $23.83 | $27.75 |
| 9.0% | $9.46 | $11.01 | $12.79 | $14.87 | $17.34 |
| 10.0% | $4.72 | $5.82 | $7.07 | $8.49 | $10.13 |
| 11.0% | $0.99 | $1.80 | $2.70 | $3.71 | $4.86 |
| 12.0% | — | — | — | $0.01 | $0.84 |