Nebius Group N.V. (NBIS) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NBIS
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Nebius Group N.V. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years; free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.0% | $0.63 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.0% | $1.09 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.0% | $1.92 |
Current Price
$219.65
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$1.09
model output — not a price target
NBIS DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NBIS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $60.1M · 0.24B shares · net debt $449.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.09
-99.5% vs $219.65
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $219.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.0% | $1.59 | $1.78 | $2.00 | $2.25 | $2.55 |
| 10.0% | $1.18 | $1.32 | $1.48 | $1.67 | $1.88 |
| 11.0% | $0.86 | $0.97 | $1.09 | $1.23 | $1.38 |
| 12.0% | $0.60 | $0.68 | $0.78 | $0.88 | $1.00 |
| 13.0% | $0.38 | $0.45 | $0.53 | $0.61 | $0.70 |
About Nebius Group N.V.
Nebius Group N.V. is a technology company dedicated to developing comprehensive infrastructure to serve the global artificial intelligence industry. Its operations encompass several key areas. Central to its mission is Nebius, an AI-focused cloud platform engineered to handle demanding AI workloads. This division constructs end-to-end AI infrastructure, featuring extensive GPU computing clusters, robust cloud platforms, and essential tools and services for developers. The group also includes Toloka AI, which functions as a data solutions provider, assisting with various phases of generative AI development. TripleTen operates as an educational technology venture, focused on equipping individuals with new skills for careers in the tech sector. Furthermore, Avride specializes in pioneering autonomous driving technologies for self-driving vehicles and delivery robots. Founded in 1989, the company was previously known as Yandex N.V. until its rebranding to Nebius Group N.V. in August 2024. Its headquarters are located in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, with additional research and development facilities spread across Europe, North America, and Israel.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- CEO
- Arkady Volozh