Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NBIS
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Nebius Group N.V. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 12.2% | $0.58 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 11.2% | $1.02 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 10.2% | $1.82 |
Current Price
$210.91
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$1.02
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NBIS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $60.1M · 0.24B shares · net debt $449.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$1.02
-99.5% vs $210.91
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $210.91; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $1.50 | $1.68 | $1.88 | $2.12 | $2.40 |
| 10.2% | $1.11 | $1.24 | $1.40 | $1.57 | $1.77 |
| 11.2% | $0.80 | $0.91 | $1.02 | $1.15 | $1.30 |
| 12.2% | $0.55 | $0.63 | $0.72 | $0.82 | $0.94 |
| 13.2% | $0.34 | $0.41 | $0.48 | $0.56 | $0.65 |
