Kellanova (K) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Kellanova (K)'s fair value in a range of $37.45 – $95.42 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $83.44 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $83.44, the market is pricing in roughly +13.6%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -15.2%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$83.44
Fair-Value Range
$37.45 – $95.42
Market-Implied Growth
+13.6%/yr
vs -15.2% 5Y actual
K DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.1B · 0.35B shares · net debt $5.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$37.45
-55.1% vs $83.44
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $83.44; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $50.06 | $53.38 | $57.29 | $61.98 | $67.72 |
| 9.0% | $40.95 | $43.22 | $45.83 | $48.88 | $52.48 |
| 10.0% | $34.02 | $35.63 | $37.45 | $39.54 | $41.94 |
| 11.0% | $28.56 | $29.74 | $31.06 | $32.54 | $34.23 |
| 12.0% | $24.16 | $25.05 | $26.03 | $27.12 | $28.34 |
About Kellanova
Kellanova, a worldwide enterprise, produces and supplies a diverse range of snack and convenience food products across North America, Europe, Latin America, the Asia Pacific region, the Middle East, Australia, and Africa. The company's primary offerings include various snack items such as crackers, savory treats, toaster pastries, assorted cereal and granola bars, and snack bites, along with crisps. Furthermore, its convenience food division features ready-to-eat breakfast cereals, frozen waffles, plant-based meal alternatives, and noodles. These items are marketed under an extensive portfolio of widely recognized brand names, prominently featuring Kellogg's, Cheez-It, Pringles, RXBAR, Eggo, Morningstar Farms, Pop-Tarts, and Special K. This vast array of brands also encompasses Austin, Parati, Bisco, Club, Luxe, Minueto, Toasteds, Town House, Zesta, Zoo Cartoon, Choco Krispis, Crunchy Nut, Kashi, Nutri-Grain, Squares, Zucaritas, Rice Krispies Treats, Sucrilhos, K-Time, Sunibrite, Split Stix, LCMs, Coco Pops, Krave, Frosties, Rice Krispies Squares, Incogmeato, Veggitizers, Gardenburger, Trink, Carr's, Kellogg's Extra, Müsli, Fruit 'n Fibre, Kellogg's Crunchy Nut, Country Store, Smacks, Honey Bsss, Zimmy's, Toppas, Tresor, Froot Ring, Chocos, Chex, Guardian, Just Right, Sultana Bran, Rice Bubbles, Sustain, Choco Krispies, Melvin, Cornelius, Chocovore, Poperto, Pops the Bee, and Sammy the Seal. Kellanova distributes its products to retailers through its own dedicated sales teams, as well as via independent brokers and distributors. The company, originally established in 1906, was known as Kellogg Company before adopting the name Kellanova in October 2023. Its main corporate office is situated in Chicago, Illinois.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Food Confectioners
- CEO
- Steven A. Cahillane