Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)'s fair value in a range of $115.93 – $320.77 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $237.00 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $237.00, the market is pricing in roughly +14.1%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -2.4%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$237.00
Fair-Value Range
$115.93 – $320.77
Market-Implied Growth
+14.1%/yr
vs -2.4% 5Y actual
JNJ DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $18.7B · 2.41B shares · net debt $28.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$115.93
-51.1% vs $237.00
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $237.00; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $147 | $155 | $165 | $176 | $190 |
| 9.0% | $125 | $130 | $137 | $144 | $153 |
| 10.0% | $107 | $111 | $116 | $121 | $127 |
| 11.0% | $94.09 | $96.99 | $100 | $104 | $108 |
| 12.0% | $83.29 | $85.47 | $87.88 | $90.55 | $93.54 |
About Johnson & Johnson
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) operates globally, engaging in the research, development, production, and distribution of a diverse range of healthcare products. In a pivotal strategic move in 2023, the company divested its Consumer Health division, establishing it as the independent entity Kenvue Inc. This separation was implemented to allow J&J to sharpen its focus on higher-growth, innovation-led areas. Consequently, well-known consumer brands like TYLENOL, LISTERINE, and BAND-AID are now part of Kenvue's portfolio. Johnson & Johnson's current operations are centered around two primary divisions: Innovative Medicine and MedTech. The Innovative Medicine segment, formerly known as Pharmaceuticals, specializes in prescription drugs designed to treat complex ailments such as rheumatoid arthritis, various forms of cancer, HIV/AIDS, and neurodegenerative disorders. Its MedTech division, encompassing Medical Devices, delivers cutting-edge technological solutions, including electrophysiology equipment, neurovascular care products, orthopaedic implants for hips, knees, and spine, advanced surgical technologies, and ACUVUE brand disposable contact lenses. These two streamlined segments primarily cater to a client base comprising hospitals, medical professionals, wholesale distributors, and retail outlets. From its headquarters in New Brunswick, New Jersey, Johnson & Johnson continues to uphold its enduring mission of advancing human health, a commitment it has maintained since its founding in 1886.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Drug Manufacturers - General
- CEO
- Joaquin Duato