Johnson & Johnson(JNJ)
Drug Manufacturers - General · New Brunswick, NJ
$266.83-0.25 (-0.09%)
Delayed quote: Sep 10, 2026, 3:05 PM EDT
Drug Manufacturers - General · New Brunswick, NJ
Delayed quote: Sep 10, 2026, 3:05 PM EDT
TGM's two-stage DCF values Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) between $111.85 and $213.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $146.23. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$266.83 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +15.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $111.85 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $146.23 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $213.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $301.92 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$266.83
Market-Implied Growth
+15.5%/yr
vs -2.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$111.85 – $213.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JNJ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $19.0B · 2.41B shares · net debt $28.2B
Estimated Fair Value
$146.23
-45.2% vs $266.83
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $266.83; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $193 | $218 | $251 | $298 | $368 |
| 6.5% | $152 | $167 | $186 | $210 | $242 |
| 7.5% | $124 | $134 | $146 | $161 | $179 |
| 8.5% | $105 | $112 | $120 | $130 | $141 |
| 9.5% | $90.23 | $95.36 | $101 | $108 | $116 |