TGM's two-stage DCF values EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) between $284.92 and $543.79 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $393.37. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$145.36 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.5% | $284.92 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.5% | $393.37 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.5% | $543.79 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $281.20 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$145.36
Market-Implied Growth
-4.6%/yr
vs +21.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$284.92 – $543.79
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for EOG (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.5B · 0.53B shares · net debt $4.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$393.37
+170.6% vs $145.36
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $145.36; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $520 | $588 | $679 | $807 | $998 |
| 6.5% | $408 | $449 | $500 | $566 | $654 |
| 7.5% | $334 | $361 | $393 | $433 | $482 |
| 8.5% | $281 | $300 | $322 | $348 | $379 |
| 9.5% | $242 | $256 | $272 | $290 | $311 |
