MasTec, Inc. (MTZ) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MTZ
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor MasTec, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$393.14 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +57.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $59.70 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $80.57 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $103.92 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $72.85 | |
Current Price
$393.14
Market-Implied Growth
+57.8%/yr
vs +18.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$80.57
model output — not a price target
MTZ DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTZ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $390.0M · 0.08B shares · net debt $1.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$145.57
-63.0% vs $393.14
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $393.14; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $187 | $196 | $207 | $220 | $234 |
| 10.5% | $158 | $165 | $172 | $181 | $191 |
| 11.5% | $135 | $140 | $146 | $152 | $159 |
| 12.5% | $116 | $120 | $125 | $129 | $134 |
| 13.5% | $101 | $104 | $108 | $111 | $115 |
About MasTec, Inc.
MasTec, Inc. is a leading infrastructure construction firm that delivers a comprehensive suite of services, encompassing engineering, construction, installation, maintenance, and enhancement. The company primarily serves the communications, energy, utility, and broader infrastructure sectors throughout the United States and Canada. Its operations are structured across distinct segments: Communications, Clean Energy and Infrastructure, Oil and Gas, Power Delivery, and Other. MasTec's construction activities involve building intricate underground and overhead distribution systems, essential for wireless and fiber-optic communication networks, as well as electrical grids. The company also develops clean energy infrastructure, including renewable energy facilities; pipelines for natural gas and other products, alongside extensive electrical and gas transmission and distribution systems. Furthermore, it specializes in heavy industrial plants, compressor and pumping stations, water and wastewater treatment facilities, and critical water and sewer pipelines, among other civil engineering projects. Additionally, the company manages the installation of power generation assets, buried and aerial fiber optic cabling, and smart home automation and energy management solutions. Beyond initial construction, MasTec offers comprehensive maintenance and upgrade solutions. These services range from routine upkeep of client networks and facilities (such as communications, power generation, pipeline, and electrical grids) to emergency restoration following natural disasters or accidents, and planned overhauls or system replacements. Its diverse clientele encompasses public and private energy providers, pipeline operators, various wireless and wireline/fiber service providers, broadband companies, install-to-the-home specialists, and governmental entities. Established in 1929, MasTec, Inc. maintains its headquarters in Coral Gables, Florida.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Engineering & Construction
- CEO
- Jose Ramon Mas